A quote from the article: “In declining to embrace the word ‘recession,’ Mr. Bush said that many Americans were just beginning to receive their tax rebate checks as part of an $168 billion stimulus program, and that it would be some time before the effects of those checks on the economy were clear.
The fact of the matter is: nobody can say whether we are in a recession or not, it is all speculation. The organization in charge of dating a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). You may view the dated
Another reason that Pres. Bush cannot say whether or not we are in a recession is that the data The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity. The decline is measured using six broad statistics: real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The table below lists the last four months of data. The obvious mix of green and red data indicates why we cannot say whether or not the
The primary reason why the NBER waits to date a recession is that it takes time to determine an economic trend. First, much of the data covered by the media (employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail trade) are reported on a monthly basis. Not until several months have passed can a real economic trend, upward or downward, be determined.
In truth, nobody knows what is in store for the U.S. With the price of oil hitting record highs, driving up energy prices (mainly transportation and heating concerns for the average consumer), a financial sector that continues to suffer, and a housing crisis that simply won't end, perhaps we can look at a 40-watt, rather than a 100-watt, future.
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