Echo

All clouds and bear market makes investor a despondent boy

Thursday, July 3, 2008

The bear market has begun. I am just a measly economist, so I will appeal to my fellow bloggers for the stats. The Fundmastery blog, Bear Market Blues? — Oil Stays Up; Stocks Fall, confirms a bear market but cannot predict when the rally (bull) will start. Stanley Bing’s blog, The bear rears up and… whines despondently, talks of despondence in the financial workplace. Finally, Al Walentis at readingeagle.com reports that the bear market will not end until August. Overall, the financial news is dismal at best.

If the weather in Boston does not improve soon, plenty of investors will gloomy and depressed due to the 20% dip (and more to come) in many indices and the bleak weather of late.

Dismal…what an ironic use of the word. Economics is often described as the “dismal science” because people are always faced with decisions on how to best allocate scarce resources. And now, with this bear market underway, making a choice has become more difficult than ever. The decision: how best to deal with financial losses when the weather has been particularly gloomy.

Another anomalous event is happening in Boston (nope, not Seattle): cooler than average weather with lots and lots of rain. I am rather new to Boston, so I asked locals if the recent daily downpours are normal for Boston. The answer is no, and I deduce that the weather has been particularly gloomy. Actually, it is July and I cannot go to, or come from, work without my umbrella.

I took the following video yesterday, July 1, 2008 while walking home from work. Somehow, I found the only dry-ish spot on Dartmouth Street, so I waited for the storm to break and shot some footage. As you can see, the storm was quite fierce, but lasted only 20 minutes or so. Passers-by were soaked and most commented on my “only dry spot left on the street.” Actually, it was only dry because my body made it dry. My clothing soaked up most of the rain while I was happily filming.

video

Since I am not a trader, nor a portfolio manager, my well-being (income) is not directly related to the financial distress of late. However, a bunch of unhappy investors coupled with days and days of rainy weather will result in a bunch of despondent financial types. Yup, that is what I theorize; if the weather in Boston does not improve soon, plenty of investors will gloomy and depressed due to the 20% dip (and more to come) in many indices and the bleak weather of late.

I am happy to receive your comments and observations. Best, Nontruths

1 comments:

Anonymous July 4, 2008 at 12:58 PM  

Had a savvy financial fellow from the left coast comment that the bull market has already started when everyone is gloomy (bearish). It sure was true in the fiasco at the beginning of the century. When will we ever learn that you don't jump on the bandwagon when it IS a bandwagon. You are already too late. Unless you are a day trader, stick with the long haul financial plan as it will pay off in the end. The worst thing most investors do is check their holdings every day or week. Leave it alone!

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