Tuesday, September 23, 2008

62.5%: The probability that the U.S. government bails-out its financial system

This is capitalism at its best! Now you can bet on odds that the Treasury Asset Relief Program (TARP) bill will pass by the end of this month. Today, Intrade.com, a prediction market platform that was founded in 1999, initiated one more asset on its prediction platform: the passing of TARP. You can buy the odds at 62.5% that the bill passes, down 2.5% from 65%.

I am just relieved that the number is less than 100%. I will hope, no pray, that the odds fall, rather than rise. However, after Paulson’s and Bernanke’s testimonies today, the bill would allow us to bypass a supernova economic threat…..all at the cost of $1,000,000,000,000!

Rebecca Wilder


  1. 12 zeros is super-novish! Am waiting to see if congress people read their email. aj

  2. Is that the official name for the $700 billion bailout, the "Treasury Asset Relief Program" (TARP)?

    What has and continues to be most disturbing to me, which was brought up this past weekend on all of his talk show visits, and this week during the testimonies, was the criticism that Paulson commented a month ago he believed markets were solid and were recovering well. Now a month later we're on the brink.

    I believe something has to be done, but as you reported, time may be running out to bet for the bailout.

  3. Hi Tim,

    Odds are up to 75% on the passing of the bail-out. I guess that since Paulson agreed to the executive pay compensation terms, things will move forward.

    Yup, TARP - read somewhere that it sounded less depressing that simply "Relief" program, which is what the media originally coined it. Funny.

    I know, and Lockhart, too!



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