Tuesday, September 9, 2008

McCain’s strength is here to stay

According to the Gallup Poll released on September 8, John McCain gained 6% points after the GOP convention in St. Cloud, Minnesota. McCain now leads Obama 49% to 44% in the first full survey following the convention. Further, he gained strength across all regions, especially in the South, where he gained 9%.
The Gallup Poll is based on a survey of 1,022 adults (959 registered voters) and subject to big swings in voter sentiment. Many criticize the poll as not representing a longer-term trend. Another measure of Presidential odds is reported by Intrade. At intrade, Obama leads McCain 53% to 45.1%.

Intrade’s odds are market based (supply and demand) and represent more rational thinking based on real-time information. Each participant buys and sells odds, using the most current information gathered, and an equilibrium probability that the candidate wins (45.1% for McCain) is determined.

According to Intrade, McCain is still down, but his odds rose 4% points the day that he announced Sarah Palin as his Vice President running mate. Over the next week, his odds remained the same, and then jumped another 1% following the GOP convention (Sept. 1-4). Obama’s odds were left unchanged following the Democratic convention (Aug. 25-28), and fell 2.5% directly following the GOP convention.

The Intrade odds tell a story that the Gallup poll can not: McCain’s odds of winning jumped following his VP announcement (Aug. 28) and again following both his and Palin’s speeches at the GOP convention. People (Republicans, Democrats, Independents) see McCain’s chances of winning as much higher once key information was gathered (Palin’s strength).

This is not just a blip in a survey-based poll (Gallup): McCain is going to give Obama a run for his money, and depending on the strength of the economy going into the third quarter, he will even win this election.

Please leave comments. Rebecca Wilder


  1. Can we check back on this in November?

  2. Most certainly! Care to place a wager, Aunt Jane????