Thursday, October 23, 2008
I am not the only one who is more sanguine on the outlook for the housing market. This is from Forbes:“Believe it or not, in the future people will be buying and selling homes. Some of them will even make a profit.
It's not so crazy an idea. Consider Albuquerque, N.M. The mid-sized Southwestern city has experienced housing price declines since a peak in the third quarter of 2007, job growth has been flat, and housing starts are expected to fade by 45% through the end of 2008. Nevertheless, it's a city that home builders and economists are bullish about for 2010 and beyond.
According to analysts at Moody's Economy.com, Albuquerque's job growth through 2012 is projected at an average annual rate of 1.6%, fueled in large part by its low costs and local business expansion. Housing starts in the city are expected to reverse course in 2009, growing by 26.6%, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). This means builders have high hopes for 2010 and 2011, when those homes will be completed and on the market.
It's the same story in several other cities: more tough times to come in the short term, but potential for a recovery and a rise in prices in the long term.” RW: Being bullish about a recovery means that prices had already stabilized by 2010 and are rising amid a stronger housing marker – a.k.a., a healthier market. All we need is a stabilization of home values prices, which are likely to occur mid 2009 or at least, “many months in the future,” from now (which could certainly be mid 2009) according to Alan Greenspan.
Forbes highlights bull opportunities for home building in 10 markets. If they are bullish about 10, then eventually, they will be bullish about 20, and then 30, etc. Housing will rebound, and there are signs out there that a stabilization will happen sooner than the well-reported later, 2010.
The 10 markets where home prices are likely to rise:
1. Albuquerque, New Mexico
2. Charlotte, North Carolina
3. San Antonio, Texas
4. Portland, Oregon
5. Austin, Texas
6. Salt Lake City, Utah
7. Colorado Springs, Colorado
8. Minneapolis, Minnesota
9. Atlanta, Georgia
10. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma