Merrill: Oil May Fall to $50
“The latest is a new Merrill call that oil could drop to $50 a barrel, although the report waffles hugely by deeming a global recession "unlikely". Have the authors not been reading the news, or is it house policy to underplay mention of how bad things look likely to get?”
RW: Funny because David Rosenberg, outspoken Economist at Merrill Lynch, has made his name by calling a recession at every economic corner – he is even more negative than Goldman Sachs, who called the $200 spike earlier in 2008. I wish that these investment banks just make up their minds already.
S&P: most dividend cuts in 50 years
“Dividend cuts in the third quarter took $22.5 billion out of the pockets of investors during what one Standard & Poor's analyst called the worst September for dividends in more than 50 years.”
RW: Oh, the oingoing risk of a negative wealth and permanent income effects! Consumer spending is not going to look pretty: financial and housing wealth falling, while at the same time, labor income and dividend income tanking!
Updating euro-area GDP forecasts
Prof. Hamilton’s analysis of Camacho and Perez-Quiros's paper:
“And what does their model say at the moment? It's pretty confident we're going to see negative real GDP growth for Europe for 2008:Q3.”
Bailout Bill Passes: Images of the day
“Bernanke and Paulson think that the Fed buying toxic garbage will spur institutions to start lending. It won't. Banks will still be holding more garbage than the Fed can possibly buy. The market will be able to smell that garbage, even if the rules allow banks to pretend that garbage is a rose.”
Is that all there is? Bailout in hand, markets want more
“With the $700-billion financial-system bailout bill now signed into law, be prepared for a weekend’s worth of comment from Wall Street that will sound a lot like mumbling from an ungrateful child:
--- It’s no magic bullet.
--- The freeze-up of the credit markets still is very serious.
--- Fixing this will take a lot of time, because confidence in the system is shot.
--- We’re probably going to need more help.”
Reward Offer: Prove Rove Stole Elections
“A non-profit organization has offered a $100,000 reward to anyone who can supply information tying Republican strategist Karl Rove and computer expert Michael Connell to illegally manipulated elections, according to a Friday press release.”
Palin tax returns for 2006, 2007 released
“Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had the least income of the four candidates on the presidential tickets last year: $166,495, according to tax returns released by her campaign Friday.”