Friday, November 28, 2008
The NY Times published an interesting article written by an anonymous banker in the credit card industry. It highlights the pitfalls in the credit industry, where lax lending standards are partially to blame for the massive delevering that is likely on the horizon. I simply wonder when consumers will be forced to reduce debt? The massive Fed and Treasury measures designed to shore up real estate and consumer credit markets are clouding the data. It is not clear if/when consumers will stop drawing on existing lines of credit.
According to the NY Times, what goes up must come down:
I recently had a client apply for a credit card. She is a homemaker, with no personal income. The house she lives in is in her husband’s name. She would have asked for a $3,000 credit line, just to pay miscellaneous expenses and to establish some credit on her own. So the computer is told that her household income is $150,000; her mortgage/rent payment is zero. The fact is that her husband’s mortgage payment is $7,000 a month (which he got with a no income verification loan). She had a good credit score, but limited credit since she has only lived in this country for the last three years. The system gave her an approval for a $26,000 line of credit!
This has got to stop. People are going to be learning hard lessons over the next years. It would help, though, if the banks could change their behavior now, before things get any worse. Tomorrow is already too late.” This certainly paints a scary picture of the credit card industry, and I do believe that eventually revolving consumer credit will decline sharply. However, that is not yet evident in the data...still!
The chart illustrates the share of consumer revolving (credit cards) and consumer other (new loan origination not including home equity) credit as a share of total consumer credit. Two things are notable here. First, revolving credit rose relative to other credit during the 2001 recession (the data only goes back to 2000), and reverted back at the conclusion of the recession. It is common for credit growth to decelerate (decline) during a recession.Second (chart 1), revolving credit took a discrete jump upward in 2004 (upward arrow). Consumer revolving credit accounted for an average of 39% of total credit spanning the years 2000 to mid-2004 and 43% spanning the years 2004-2008.
This surge in the revolving credit share is what the anonymous banker is worried about: lax lending standards on credit cards allowed consumers to become overly indebted to credit card creditors. Interestingly enough, revolving consumer credit was still 43% of overall credit on November 12, 2008. When will it fall?
I suppose that it will fall when consumers are forced to pay down debt (or default). But I don’t see that happening if government intervention prevents consumers from doing so. The Fed is offering $200 billion to shore up consumer lending, including credit card facilities under the new Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF).
With the Fed’s massive liquidity injections, lending is still very positive, and aggregate revolving credit is not declining. Into 2009, the Fed's balance sheet will rise another $1.2 trillion, where $750 billion of that will go on balance by year’s end. Here is what we know:
- $450 billion in Term Auction Facility (TAF) lending scheduled through the end of 2009.
- $200 billion for the new Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to shore up the asset market that backs loans to consumers (student, auto, credit).
- $100 billion to buy GSE debt this week.
- $500 billion to buy mortgage backed securities by over the next several quarters.
With the liquidity facilities to come and a $600 stimulus package on the horizon, when will consumers be forced to delever? For now, I will wait to see evidence in the data that consumers are borrowing less. Normally, credit falls during a recession, so I will be looking for a sharp decline in revolving credit.