Monday, April 20, 2009

Housing bubble?

Looking at this chart from Gallup, one could ask why there ever was a housing bubble at all?

Note to self: take survey results with grain of salt.

Rebecca Wilder


  1. Rebecca - your note to self says it all. If we were to believe people were that smart, we'd be really lost and just go with the flow as there would be no point in being a contrarian!

  2. How can you have a boom in housing prices if the buyers did not think it was a good time to buy houses?

    Of course their opinion was wrong, but that does not mean the poll was wrong.

  3. The limitation of anything this survey can tell you is in the limitation of the question itself.

    "Do you like chocolate" has no bearing what-so-ever on the likelihood or not of your buying any, let alone buying a certain brand. It may have a bearing on whether or not you will ever buy chocolate.

    One wonders if the survey wasn't sponsored by someone who wants the stat to look good.

  4. Rebecca, thanks very much.

    Over and above what you say here, I suppose the fact that the savings rate is growing is also a negative for the economy in intermediate-term to get us out of the recession if it continues. Longer-term it is good. Household debt is supposedly over 100% of the GDP, so do you know that if paying down debt is considered savings?

    "The January U.S. personal savings rate hit 5%, according to new BEA figures today. That’s up from 3.9% savings rate last month and 0.1% a year ago. We’re now at levels last seen in the U.S. in 1993."

    I can´t tell you how much I appreciate your views.

    Ron S.


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