Friday, May 8, 2009
This week is labor week -and stress test week, but I will let you read about that here, here, here or here - the Fed's white paper)! In preparation of the BLS report, I wanted to talk a little bit about the almost-discredited ADP report. Although the ADP report touts a correlation of 0.96 with the BLS report, it seems to add little predictive power for the BLS nonfarm payroll report. Calculated Risk argues the correlation is strong only after revisions.
However, the ADP report does add value: it reports the job loss by firm size. This is different from the BLS breakdown, which is by industry.
However, the announced layoffs are all at the large firms, which is tracked by Forbes:
- May 7: Cummins ( CMI - news - people ) idles Indiana plant that supplies Chrysler and lays off 610 workers.
- May 7: DuPont ( DD - news - people ) adds to December job cut of 2,500 with another 2,000-employee cut.
- May 6: Wells Fargo ( WFC - news - people ) freezes pension plans and fires 548 in North Carolina.
- May 5: Microsoft ( MSFT - news - people ) pink-slips a second 5,000 employees following its initial January layoff.
- May 5: Allstate ( ALL - news - people ) closes claims office in Florida and lays off 66 employees.
- April 28: On top of 1,850 layoffs announced in January, Clear Channel ( CCU - news - people ) slashes 590 jobs, bringing cuts to 12% of its original workforce total.