Thursday, July 23, 2009
The thing about a global turning point is: some economic indicators will increasingly improve, while others will continue to worsen.
Singapore experienced a large 20.4% annualized jump in GDP.
Statistics Singapore notes that the surge in GDP was significantly influenced by a spike in biomedical manufacturing that drove the contraction in manufacturing output up from -24.3% annualized in Q1 2009 to just -1.5% annualized in Q2 2009. This is unsustainable, but still welcomed first-derivative news. Finance and tourism needs to bounce back.
On the other hand, G7 unemployment rates continue to surge causing havoc on final domestic demand.
The G7 unemployment rates will likely rise for months (quarters) to come. Eventually, though, massive monetary and various fiscal stimulus packages will halt the surge. Already, Germany and US are seeing their unemployment rates stabilize on a Yr-Yr (annual change) basis.
When do you believe that the global economic recession will end?