Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Brad DeLong and Mark Thoma posit that a falling US public deficit is bad news – they are right!
Deficit hysteria is now mainstream thinking, while the more appropriate hysteria should be “jobs hysteria”. How in the world is nominal income growth expected to finance a drop in consumer debt leverage if the government supports a smaller deficit? TARP costs less and tax receipt growth is beating expectations. But that's all it is, beating expectations.
This only proves the endogeneity of the deficit: the sole reason that the private sector is producing stronger-than-expected growth in tax receipts is BECAUSE the government ran large deficits.
Put it this way: as long as the US is running current deficits, then a shrinking government deficit will, by definition, squeeze liquidity from the private sector. During a “balance sheet recession”, the government should be growing its balance sheet not shrinking it.
An excerpt from the Japan's Quarterly Economic Outlook (Summary*) (Summer 1997):
“Thus, recovery in personal consumption is expected to continue after the reaction to the rise in demand ahead of the consumption tax hike subsides in the near future. However, the pace of recovery is likely to be moderate considering the increases in the tax burden, such as the rise in the consumption tax.”RW: Boy were they wrong – moderate?
GDP fell 2.0% in 1998 (from +1.6% growth in 1997) and consumption growth turned negative over the year, -1.1% (from +0.8% in 1997). Please see slide 9 from one of Richard Koo’s presentation in 2008; he highlights the policy-mistake-induced “unnecessary government deficits". The point is: the government deficit is not some exogenous “thing” that the government controls; it’s very much endogenous and a function of private demand.
We’re on this road now: squeezing liquidity out of the private sector; supporting minimal wage growth; and imminent deleveraging is on the horizon(more likely the default route). And Congress is happy that they are squeezing private sector liquidity? I guess so, as reported by the Wall Street Journal yesterday:
"Like a number of Democrats, Mr. Blumenauer said he's "intrigued" with the consumption-tax idea. Tax experts say consumption taxes are regressive, because lower-income people tend to spend more of their income. But a consumption tax could be designed with offsetting breaks for lower-income Americans, to shield them from its impacts."Rebecca Wilder